Prospects for decarbonising freight transport in Australia

The iMOVE project Freight vehicles: An evaluation of renewable energy fuels has been completed. This 9-month piece of research undertook a comparative evaluation of the energy and environmental performance of the electric battery and hydrogen fuel cell for freight vehicles in Australia. The final report for the project is downloadable below.

The research was commissioned by the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and carried out by Swinburne University of Technology.

Objectives

In researching the comparative evaluation, and arriving at evidence-based findings, this project had the following objectives:

• Understand the realistic proposition for hydrogen as a sustainable freight fuel in the timeframes dictated by emissions reduction targets;
• Understand the influence of energy pathways, electricity mix, and driving conditions in the Australian context;
• Investigate the requirements to improve the vehicle energy and environmental performance by focusing on clean energy requirements within the electricity mix;
• Through desktop studies, explore the impacts of electric and hydrogen freight vehicles for road infrastructure, including implications for maintenance;
• Understand the trade-offs between emissions and vehicle mixes by evaluating a number of scenarios to model the transition by assuming varying levels of vehicle adoption; and
• Understand the barriers and opportunities surrounding road freight decarbonisation and their relevant roles in mitigating the transport-related climate change impacts.

These objectives would then go on to inform policy directions and pathways for transitioning freight fleets, establish which solution(s) would be feasible and most effective for rapid reduction in emissions, and help to inform the transport industry in developing a deeper understanding of the current state of developments, emerging trends, and future directions in decarbonising freight transport.

Methodology: The GREET Lifecycle Assessment Model

One of the key objectives of this project, the lifecycle assessment modelling, amounting to a comparative evaluation of the energy and environmental performance of electric battery and hydrogen fuel cell technologies for heavy freight vehicles in Australia.

The tool used for the evaluation was the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation model (GREET), developed by the USA’s Argonne National Laboratory. This model is composed of the following steps:

• Data collection: Includes vehicle characteristics, fuel production and use, and energy production, relating to energy consumption and emissions from various transportation systems and fuels particular to a region or a country.
• Lifecycle assessment: The fuels and technologies used in transportation, taking into consideration emissions from all aspects of the production, use, and disposal of material.
• Energy balance calculation: In order to account for energy inputs at each stage of the lifecycle, including extraction, production, transportation, and usage, the model analyses the energy balance of various transportation systems and fuels.
• Emissions calculation: Based on the data, a determination of emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide and emissions of pollutants like particulate matter and nitrogen oxides.
• Comparison of technologies and fuels: The effectiveness of different transportation technologies and fuels can be assessed by comparing them against a pre-established set of standards, or by using real-world data. The GREET model’s findings can also be compared with those of other lifecycle assessment models. Additionally, GREET provides the ability to compare the outcomes of the model with those of experimental studies that assess the energy consumption and emissions of various fuels and technologies for transportation in real contexts.
• Model transparency and validation: To ensure that the model findings are accurate and credible, the model is regularly validated through peer reviewed publications ensuring transparency. The model’s results and outcomes have also been compared and validated against other similar models and factual data.

From these steps the model produces outputs in two main categories:

1. Emissions: including Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), Particulate Matters (PM10, PM2.5), Sulfur Oxides (SOx), CH4, N2O, CO2, and CO2 Biogenic. The emissions are also calculated in a group as greenhouse gases.
2. Energy: From both fossil fuel and renewable energy sources. In the lifecycle assessment section, the energy, and emissions from the process inputs (including upstream) are combined in the findings.

Completing the lifecycle assessment, and to provide an accurate assessment of the total environmental impacts of different transportation options, the production, distribution, and end-of-life disposal of transportation fuels is analysed in addition to vehicle operation.

It should also be noted that it is thought that this is the first use of the GREET model in Australia, and as such there was a need to adapt the model for an Australian context, in matters such as local fuel production methods and vehicle fleet composition.

Table: Comparative evaluation of electric and hydrogen trucks: 5 scenarios

(click image to download a pdf version)

Stakeholder consultation

In addition to the GREET modelling, the research team also conducted stakeholder consultation via an anonymised online survey with 130 industry stakeholders completed the survey, comprising 40 small, 60 medium and 30 large organisations.
Key points in the data collected from the survey indicated that:

• Approximately 62.3% of respondents had a formal decarbonisation and environmental management strategy within their organisations.
• Operators with larger fleet sizes were more committed to the establishment of a decarbonisation strategy.
• operators with non-urban activity demonstrated higher commitment to decarbonisation compared to urban operators.
• 47% of participants rated their knowledge as basic, 42% as intermediate and 11% advanced.
• In terms of preferred zero emission truck fleet configurations, a large number of participants indicated they prefer a mixed fleet. Reasons for such preference is perhaps associated with lowering the risk and uncertainty about new zero emission truck technologies. For all organisational size categories and operations types, the single option of battery electric trucks was the next preferred option.
• The majority of participants are not aware or unable to find a suitable battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell trucks available on the Australian market.
• Barriers and obstacles: The lack of fuel and supporting infrastructure, high upfront cost and total cost of ownership were the top impeding factors.
• Lack of financing options, operational performance requirements and insufficient organisational support were the least impeding factors.
• Considering the higher price of zero emission trucks compared to diesel options, only 7 out of 130 participants stated that they are completely ready to absorb the additional cost. Furthermore, the majority were of the view that their customers would not be willing to pay a premium for green freight services.
• While a degree of uncertainty existed among participants on what could be the best technology option for the Australian market, it was indicated that a combination of battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell options was necessary in both the short and long terms.

Graph: Motivations for presence of a formal decarbonisation strategy

Report findings: Policy implications and future research directions

Upon completion of this project’s literature review, lifecycle analysis and the stakeholder consultation, these are some of the main points regarding possible future government policy to accelerate the transition from diesel trucks to low and zero (LZET) emissions trucks, and ideas for future research.

Policy implications

• Increase availability of LZET. This can be achieved using combinations of policy levers that include development of fuel efficiency standards for heavy vehicles; removal of regulatory barriers that limit LZET options for the Australian market including width and weight restrictions.
• Provision of financial incentives in the form of targeted subsidies (operating expenses, capital expenses, or both) to encourage freight operators with the uptake. It is anticipated that financial subsidies would only work once the supply and availability of LZETs increases and there are more models and varieties to choose from.
• Plan for phase-out of diesel trucks to provide certainty to the market, both manufacturers and also freight operators, to help them plan ahead. An exact timeframe, however, would need to be arrived at through a wide stakeholder consultation that takes into consideration Australian-specific conditions and also other global factors that may influence availability and adoption rates.
• Support demand management and modal shift strategies. Road freight decarbonisation would need be part of a holistic approach for road transport decarbonisation efforts, including consideration of demand management and optimisation of freight distribution strategies.
• Support independent trials, field testing, knowledge sharing and information campaigns. The stakeholder consultations showed low and varying levels of zero emissions truck knowledge among fleet operators. There was a high level of uncertainty about the technical features of LZETs (e.g., range and reliability).
• Support low and zero emission heavy vehicle R&D. A considerable number of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are active in the production and modification of trucks and buses, representing a major industrial sector in terms of job and economic activity. Such developments present an opportunity to rebuild Australia’s sovereign automotive manufacturing capability. Governments at both the local and federal levels can have a role in facilitating such outcomes ensuring establishment of outcome-driven partnerships between OEMs and research institutes. Such approach will not only foster development of critical and emerging technologies at national level, it will also guarantee a pipeline of digitally equipped workforce to support Australia’s commitment to net zero.

Future research directions

• Undertake lifecycle analysis for trucks operating on renewable fuels. This study was focused on a comparative evaluation of hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric trucks. While renewable fuels solutions are certainly valid considerations, the evidence-base surrounding their lifecycle emissions is still not well-understood particularly in the Australian context. Such research should be prioritised before investments are committed to support their introduction.
• Standardisation of key technological solutions. To ensure that new LZET solutions can be used more widely, the industry and key stakeholders including research organisations need to engage in the development of relevant new standards. Battery charging connectors, payment and battery-swapping standardisation are few examples where standards are needed to facilitate wider adoption.
• Deep-diving into industry beliefs, understanding, and attitudes. The stakeholder consultation undertaken in this study provided some important insights but also highlighted current knowledge gaps about how freight operators consider and view LZETs.
• Update Australian truck emissions factors to reflect EURO VI/VII standards. The Australian Government has adopted Australian Design Rule 80/04 mandating Euro VI for all new approved heavy vehicle models supplied from 1 November 2024. The EURO VII standards are proposed internationally for 2027 but are probably not expected to be applied in Australia before 2030-2032. Future work should consider inclusion of these standards into emissions estimation models and lifecycle analyses taking into consideration the timeframes expected for their introduction.
• Modal shift analyses. Future research should investigate the potential emissions reductions and economic benefits of shifting freight from road to rail, to coastal shipping or other alternative modes.
• Integration with renewable energy. Studying the synergies between freight decarbonisation efforts and the expansion of renewable energy and renewable energy zones (REZ) could be highly relevant. Exploring ways to align energy generation and consumption patterns for optimal sustainability would be insightful.
• Long-term infrastructure planning. Future research can explore the long-term infrastructure requirements and investments needed to support a decarbonised freight sector.
• Willingness to pay for green freight services. The feedback from stakeholders in this study indicated that they viewed shippers would not be willing to pay a premium for green freight services, including services provided by LZET.

Expected project impacts

“We hope this project could help policymakers and stakeholders identify the most promising and viable solutions, anticipate potential challenges, and develop effective strategies to accelerate road freight decarbonisation.”

Download the final reports

Download your copy of the final report, Prospects for decarbonising freight transport in Australia: A lifecycle comparative evaluation of electric and hydrogen trucks powered from renewable energy, by clicking the button below.

Additionally, a comprehensive Literature Review Report was compiled for this project, and it is also available for download here.