The future of travel demand modelling and forecasting

This project will conduct a comprehensive review of national and international research on travel demand models. In particular it will involve a critical examination of current practices, and ways in which they could be improved, as well as understanding the Department of Planning, Transport, and Infrastructure’s (DPTI) business requirements in relation to modelling, with a view to informing DPTI’s future research agenda.

Participants

• Department of Planning, Transport, and Infrastructure
• Institute for Choice, University of South Australia

Project background

The Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure (DPTI) is responsible for the delivery of effective planning policy, efficient transport, and valuable social and economic infrastructure in South Australia. Travel demand models constitute an important component of the transport planning and policy-making process. They are regularly used by metropolitan, regional and national planning organisations to determine the required capacity that new infrastructure must satisfy, and to assess the economic, environmental and social impacts of competing initiatives. DPTI is interested in improving the ability of their existing travel demand models to generate credible and reliable forecasts.

The Institute for Choice (I4C) is a world leader in developing and applying innovative techniques to understand choice behaviour across a wide variety of contexts, including but not limited to transportation. I4C comprises researchers with a multidisciplinary background: the domain knowledge of members cuts across a range of disciplines, such as econometrics, transportation, psychology, behavioural economics, environment and resource economics, urban planning, marketing, and civil engineering.

Project objectives

The objective of this project is to assess the current state-of-practice with regards to travel demand modelling, and to identify directions for future research. Broadly, this project seeks to address the question, “What is the future of travel demand modelling and forecasting?”

Based on a preliminary review, three broad themes have been identified for review:

1. Model scope
2. Data requirements; and
3. Analytical methods