Emissions and economic modelling of NSW road and rail freight

This research aims to model the impact of various policy levers on carbon emissions from road and rail freight, and to identify the economic benefits (including value of CO2 emissions reductions and public health effects) that will result from decarbonising the freight sector in New South Wales.

The research will achieve this by developing a robust evidence base to support the development of the Transport for NSW (TfNSW) Net Zero Freight Emissions Policy through emissions and economic assessments up to 2060.

This project will comprise a comprehensive literature review of international best practice policies that have enabled reductions in freight emissions and evidence of uptake of low emissions technologies and practices. It will also include modelling baseline emissions (without interventions) for base and future horizon years and quantify their impacts on the environment, health, and wellbeing.

The study will then evaluate the feasibility of potential policy interventions, estimate the likely industry uptake of proposed solutions and apply the same models to estimate future emissions in the presence of these interventions in NSW. Finally, the study will undertake economic assessment of the impacts (e.g. value of CO2 emissions reductions, public health) of policy interventions and provide recommendations to overcome barriers to deployment.

It is also proposed that a white paper be developed summarising the research outcomes to be used for stakeholder consultations to test the validity and feasibility of the research findings and collate feedback from both industry and government stakeholders.

The outcomes from this research will provide important directions for policy making at the NSW state level that can also be used to inform policy interventions in other states to help NSW meet its emissions reduction targets.

Transport for NSW recognises that the potential implementation of future measures will require working closely with road and rail freight operators through periods of transition to maximise long term viability and competitiveness within the industry.

Participants

• Transport for NSW
• Swinburne University of Technology
• University of Queensland

Project background

The transport sector in NSW is the second largest contributor to the state’s greenhouse gas emissions. Road freight in particular is a significant contributor to the sector’s emissions and is expected to grow as a proportion of total emissions. TfNSW is committed to supporting the reduction of emissions across the freight sector and to achieving the NSW government’s commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.

Achieving this target will require government and industry to work together to identify and remove barriers to transport emissions reductions, and to embrace innovative, agile and outcome-focused policies and interventions. TfNSW is working closely with the NSW Department of Planning and Environment (DPE), to progress the net zero freight emissions policy.

At present, there are opportunities to integrate new data and insights to address uncertainties and improve the granularity of existing freight transport and emission projections, and to address knowledge gaps regarding the most effective and cost-effective policy levers and interventions to reduce NSW freight emissions and realise positive social and economic benefits.

Project objectives

The research proposed in this study aims to develop a robust evidence base to support TfNSW‘s development of policy levers to support emissions reductions in rail and road freight. This will be achieved through delivering robust and granular NSW-wide freight transport (vehicle-kilometre travelled, VKT) and associated emission projections per heavy vehicle sector out to 2060 and credibly assessing identified policy levers and interventions to accelerate emission reductions from NSW road and rail freight.

This assessment will include an analysis of the technical feasibility of these policy levers and interventions; select socio-economic and environmental impacts of potential measures; quantitative modelling of VKT and emission reductions out to 2060; and economic assessment of key policy levers and interventions (packages of policy levers and interventions).

The study will first identify current known interventions/initiatives pursued by governments to reduce emissions in the freight sector, primarily focused on road, including the potential for mode shift to rail. This task will be informed by findings from recent consultations undertaken by TfNSW which looked at the barriers and opportunities raised by the industry and identified issues in transitioning to low and zero emissions vehicles.

Following the analysis of the technical feasibility and socio-economic and environmental impacts of these potential measures, (packages of) policy levers and identified interventions will be modelled.

Specifically, the research will aim to achieve the following objectives:

1. Model baseline (current policy) emissions and select economic outcomes out to 2060 (building on DPE’s freight emissions projections of current policy settings), improving the robustness and granularity of emission projections to facilitate the credible modelling of policy levers and interventions. This will include baseline projections for:
   • Freight operators – in the form whole of life costs; and
   • Government and society – in the form of monetised health, and where possible, environmental and wellbeing impacts of current policy settings

2. Model the impacts of identified policy levers (packages of policy levers) on road freight VKT and emissions reduction of different sectors and vehicle types (road and rail), including economic assessment, both to:
   • Freight operators – in the form of impacts of policy on the whole of life costs of operating low and zero emissions vehicles (LZEVs); and
   • Government and society – in the form of monetised health, and where possible, environmental and wellbeing. impacts of lower emissions; and likely costs of implementation to government

3. Undertake economic assessment of the proposed policy interventions, including identified assessment of best practice suite of policy levers that have a proven record of success in other jurisdictions.

Please note …

This page will be a living record of this project. As it matures, hits milestones, etc., we’ll continue to add information, links, images, interviews and more. Watch this space!