Data-driven bus impact evaluation tool for major road incidents

During major road disruptions, deploying timely mitigation strategies, such as alternative transport options or resource reallocation are often used to reduce customer impacts. However, decision-makers currently have limited access to real-time insights into affected bus routes and the scale of customer impacts, hampering emergency response efforts.

Through integration with road network mapping, advanced GIS analytics, and historical data, this project will develop an interactive bussing tool to accurately visualise disruptions, quantify customer impacts, and recommend actionable and right size responses.

The platform will centralise critical information, empowering transport agencies to minimise customer impacts, and enhance operational resilience during emergencies.

Participants

• Transport for NSW
• University of Technology Sydney

Project background

Building on the success of recent iMOVE project 1-071, Optimisation of replacement buses during network disruptions, where a data-driven optimisation model and visualisation tool were developed to predict replacement bus needs during rail disruptions, this project addresses a critical gap exposed by major road incidents in Sydney.

During major road disruptions, decision-makers lack real-time insights into affected bus routes and the scale of customer impacts, hampering emergency response efforts. While the existing tool streamlines rail-related disruptions, road incidents require a more dynamic approach to manage cascading effects on bus networks.

The current process relies on fragmented data sources and manual validations, delaying the identification of disrupted routes and prevents an accurate estimation of affected passengers using historical patronage patterns.

This limitation undermines the ability to deploy timely mitigation strategies, such as alternative transport options or resource reallocation. By integrating road network mapping, advanced GIS analytics, and historical data, this project will develop an interactive bussing tool to visualise disruptions, quantify customer impacts, and recommend actionable responses.

Project objectives

1. Identify affected bus stops and routes at specific locations through dynamic mapping of disruptions, leveraging GIS road network data to pinpoint impacted bus sections during major road incidents.
2. Estimate the number of impacted customers using advanced analytics on historical patronage data such as OPAL data and bus load data, enabling evidence-based resource allocation for emergency responses such as replacement buses or alternative transport options.
3. Develop a data-driven impact estimation tool integrating advanced GIS road network data and historical patronage patterns to dynamically visualise affected bus routes, stops, and customer impacts during major road incidents. This centralised tool will empower decision-makers with actionable insights to give them confidence to deliver the relevant rapid emergency response.

Please note …

This page will be a living record of this project. As it matures, hits milestones, etc., we’ll continue to add information, links, images, interviews and more. Watch this space!