ITS Monday: Edition 3, 2025

Stralis Aircraft developing cleaner and cheaper hydrogen-electric plane

“Brisbane-based Stralis Aircraft and CQ University researchers are working to develop long-range hydrogen electric propulsion systems which they say could make aviation cheaper. It hopes to use the technology for the first time on an Australian commercial route between Brisbane and Gladstone in 2027.”

A relation of the iMOVE project with Stralia Aicraft and QUT, Simulation and modelling of a hydrogen-electric aircraft.

Related iMOVE article:

• Emma Whittlesea: Flying toward Net Zero
• Alternative Fuels: Info, Projects & Resources

Related iMOVE project:

• Experiments on consumer preferences for sustainable airlines

Accounting for the location and allocation of working hours throughout the working week: A discrete-continuous choice model

The first of a few new academic articles this week. Thus from academics at the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, co-authored by David Hensher, Edward Wei, and Andrea Pellegrini. The abstract:

“As COVID-19 becomes a close distant memory for many, we are seeing the impact it has had on where working hours throughout the week are being undertaken. It is not unreasonable to assume that the support for greater flexibility in where work is completed compared to pre-COVID-19 is here to stay and that transport planning needs to move this new pattern of location behaviour centre stage in the revision of strategic transport models.

Throughout a seven-day week, we are seeing days in which an individual goes to the main office all day or works from home all day, or undertakes a blended location workday, or does not work at all on a particular day. These four alternatives for each day of the week define a discrete choice model setting which together with the actual hours worked at each location on each day represents a discrete-continuous modelling setting.

The paper is interested in identifying where work takes place and the committed hours for each day of the week and treats the seven days of the week as an instantaneous panel. For days where there is commuting involved, we split the discrete alternatives to account for whether commuting occurs during the peak or off-peak period of a day, which is important in terms of the commuting activities in the transport network.

We account for the presence of error correlation between the discrete (mixed logit with error components) and continuous (seemingly unrelated regression equations) choices through a selectivity correction for each alternative where it is shown to be statistically significant. A series of direct elasticities provide behaviourally informative evidence on the key drivers of the choice amongst the discrete location alternatives and the continuous choice of hours associated with each.

The model system has a very practical feature, in the sense that it can be easily programmed into a strategic transport model system in order to adjust commuting travel activity by mode and time of day in the presence of a more flexible and hence less rigid profiling of when and where work takes place.”

Related iMOVE articles:

• Working from Home: Info, Projects & Resources
• Prospects for Working from Home: Assessing the evidence

Development, practical challenges, and application of a state-wide transport model system in Australias

David Hensher authorship again, this time with Chinh Ho and Edward Wei. The abstract:

“This paper develops a regional strategic travel model system to predict expected changes in traffic volumes and public transport patronage up to 2056. On the supply side, we develop transport network datasets for four linehaul modes – train, coach, car, and plane, incorporating travel times, fares, costs, and service frequency.

On the demand side, an aggregate modal share logit model for three trip purposes is estimated to identify the role of various trip attributes and socioeconomic characteristics to forecast modal shares in the base year 2016. The resulting models produce an accessibility index asessing each mode role in defining the accessibility to each Statistical Area level 2 in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. This index informs a residential population model to identify the relationship between population and accessibility, highlighting the wider impact of transport improvements on the regional economy.

The model links population changes to travel demand and predicts induced demand under a business-as-usual scenario. The application of the model system is illustrated using a corridor between Sydney and Newcastle.”

Systematic assessment of push and pull initiatives in behavioural responses associated with public transport fares, service frequency, car-related tolls, distance-based road user charges, and parking charges

Another new paper with Daivd Hensher on board, this one co-authored with Edward Wei and Wen Liu. The abstract:

“There has been a constant flow of empirical evidence suggesting the likely modal trip impact that stand-alone policy initiatives such as public transport fares or service frequency and road pricing reforms (be it tolls or distance-based charging) have on the change in travel behaviour. While the evidence, typically converted to mean direct elasticity and cross elasticity modal estimates, is informative, there is a dearth of empirical evidence on elasticities associated with policy initiatives that combine policies such as a public transport fare or service frequency change and a car-related toll and /or distance-based charge and/or parking charges.

This paper investigates the one-way trip and arc elasticity impacts of stand-alone policy initiatives and compares the two elasticity effects when push and pull policy initiatives are at play. We find not only that there are asymmetric effects according to whether the policy involves an increase or a decrease, but that the combined policy initiatives suggest very different mean arc elasticity impacts, opening up opportunities for behavioural changes that are not obtained to the same extent from a stand-alone policy initiative.

Each policy by itself generally, although not always, has a lower relative elasticity compared to when it is combined with another policy. We use the advanced Metroscan integrated transport and land use strategic model system to obtain the evidence for 2024 in the Sydney Metropolitan Area.”

How Sydney has rebranded itself from the “city that hates bikes”

An interview with the City of Sydney’s Manager of Cycling Strategy Fiona Campbell on progress and obstacles in establishing cycling as a safe and attractive transport option in that city.

Related iMOVE article:

• Active Transport: Info, Projects & Resources

Related iMOVE projects:

• Safer cycling infrastructure: Design and policy

Australia’s road toll hits 12-year high as pedestrian and cyclist fatalities rise

“Australia’s road toll hits 12-year high as pedestrian and cyclist fatalities rise. Government figures show 1,300 people died on the roads last year in a rate of increase not seen since the 1960s. Last year’s road toll was 18.5% higher than 2021, when a 10-year plan to halve road deaths was introduced.”

Related iMOVE article:

• Road Safety: Info, Projects & Resources

Related iMOVE projects:

• Motorcyclist safety: Connected motorcycle pilot
• New technologies to engage the community/improve road safety

Cybersecurity regulations for automated vehicles: A conceptual model demonstrating the “Tragedy of the commons”

This mew academic paper is co-authored by Shah Khalid Khan, Nirajan Shiwakoti, Peter Stasinopoulos, and Matthew Warren. The abstract:

“The integration of various stakeholders in the advancement of Automated Vehicles (AVs) has given rise to a range of technical, legal, and social challenges. Among these challenges, deterring cyber-criminal activities through the implementation of robust cybersecurity protocols and regulations stands out as the most urgent. Although individual stakeholders possess a solid understanding of cybersecurity regulations, there is a lack of a comprehensive decision-making tool that can dynamically visualise the macro-level implications of the AVs Cyber Regulatory Framework (CRF) among Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) stakeholders.

To bridge this knowledge gap, this study employs the Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to dynamically evaluate the progress of interdisciplinary ITS stakeholders in cyber-regulatory advancements. The CLD framework formulates the “tragedy of the commons” system archetype, wherein stakeholders prioritise their self-interests in enhancing cybersecurity, making decisions based on their specific needs without fully considering the potential consequences for others, AV adoption, and the long-term implications for CRF.

The findings highlight three key leverage points for decision-makers to focus on. Firstly, establishing a CRF grounded in automakers’ innovation is crucial. Secondly, sharing risks and addressing negative externalities associated with underinvestment and knowledge asymmetries in cybersecurity are essential. Lastly, capitalising on the vast amount of AV-generated data in AV operations and urban planning holds significant potential. Moreover, achieving an effective CRF requires striking a delicate balance among four factors: i) managing the limitations on data accessibility for AV automakers and ITS service providers; ii) establishing appropriate thresholds for regulatory command and control; iii) ensuring the safeguarding of automakers’ business investments; and iv) protecting consumers’ data privacy.”

Related iMOVE articles:

• Connected Vehicles: Info, Projects & Resources
• Autonomous Driving: Info, Projects & Resources
• VIDEO: Transport cybersecurity webinar

Related iMOVE projects:

• How cybersecurity safe is your vehicle?
  
• C-ITS Pilot Security Credential Management System

What do walking and e-hailing bring to scale economies in on-demand mobility?

This is co-authored by Kenan Zhang, Javier Alonso-Mora, and Andres Fielbaum. The abstract:

“This study investigates the impact of walking and e-hailing on the scale economies of on-demand mobility services. An analytical framework is developed to i) explicitly characterize the physical interactions between passengers and vehicles in the matching and pickup processes, and ii) derive the closed-form degree of scale economies (DSE) to quantify scale economies.

The general model is then specified for conventional street-hailing and e-hailing, with and without walking before pickup and after dropoff. We show that, under a system-optimum fleet size, the market always exhibits economies of scale regardless of the matching mechanism and the walking behaviors, though the scale effect diminishes as passenger demand increases. Yet, street-hailing and e-hailing show different scale economies in their matching process. While street-hailing matching shows a constant DSE of two, e-hailing matching is more sensitive to demand and its DSE diminishes to one when passenger competition emerges.

Walking, on the other hand, has mixed effects on the scale economies: while the reduced pickup and in-vehicle times bring a positive scale effect, the extra walking time and possible concentration of vacant vehicles and waiting passengers on streets negatively affect scale economies. All these analytical results are validated through agent-based simulations on Manhattan with real-life demand patterns.”

Micromobility in 2030: The future of bikes, scooters & city streets

Predictions from Urban Sharing CRO, Tom Nutley. “Whilst most people are busy making predictions for 2025, we thought why not jump ahead and see what shared micromobility will look like in 2030? That’s right—we’re skipping the next five years because, honestly, this industry moves faster than a fully charged e-bike in turbo mode.”

Related iMOVE article:

• Micromobility: Info, Projects & Resources

Related iMOVE projects:

• OneDock: Supercharging e-micromobility
• Road use activity data: Cyclists, pedestrians and micromobility

The overlooked role of roadworks in micromobility’s accessibility

The academic paper is co-authored by Dimitrios Argyros, Jeppe Rich, and  Anders F. Jensen. all of the Technical University of Denmark. The abstract:

“Transforming cities often comes with the overlooked consequence of roadworks. Complex underground infrastructure, such as cabling, anti-flooding systems, and heating works, makes urban transformations costly and time-consuming. This trend will likely persist, making it important to understand its impact on our daily lives. For the first time, we present a comprehensive dataset on construction work in Copenhagen and analyse travel time delays in cycling trips by expanding a cycling speed model based on extensive trajectory data. Our findings reveal that construction activities can reduce average cycling speeds by 0.4 to 1 km/h on affected segments, significantly affecting mobility.”

Construction standards for e-scooters

A new publication from the UK Department of Transport. “The Department for Transport commissioned the report to provide evidence on technical requirements to consider in future regulations if e-scooter are legalised.”

• a review of literature and international regulations and standards
• analysis of technical requirements for e-scooters
• integration with vehicles for disabled people and the effect of e-scooters on their mobility choices
• sustainability, environmental impact and lifecycle

Gold Coast unit explodes in flames as hot e-scooter battery put in freezer

Taking particular notice of the heat state of lithium-ion batteries is a good thing. However, putting hot batteries in the fridge or freezer to cool them down is a big no!

• a review of literature and international regulations and standards
• analysis of technical requirements for e-scooters
• integration with vehicles for disabled people and the effect of e-scooters on their mobility choices
• sustainability, environmental impact and lifecycle

Related iMOVE project:

• Fire safety for EVs and micromobility: Best practice assessment

Estimating gasoline demand under electric vehicle adoption: A spatial model for Brazil

This academic paper is co-authored by Sergio Prolo, Andrea Pellegrini, Werner Kraus Junior, Alexandre Hering Coelhoc, and John Rose. The abstract:

“We investigate gasoline demand growth in Brazil over a 16-year period, assessing its response to electric vehicle (EV) adoption and taxation measures. Using a spatial-based econometric model with data from 2006 to 2021 across all Brazilian states, we observe that annual gasoline sales nearly doubled from 2006 to 2014, reaching 0.22 m³ per capita, and then stabilized.

Our model reveals that the EV motorization rate negatively impacts gasoline demand, with an elasticity of -0.126, compared to 0.609 for internal combustion engine vehicles. The results show that aggressive fuel taxation alone is insufficient to achieve long-term reductions in demand. However, fleet electrification is more effective, potentially reducing per capita gasoline consumption by 90% between 2021 and 2034. A combined approach integrating taxation and electrification offers the most efficient pathway for reducing demand while generating revenue for public investment in Brazil’s transition to a carbon-free transportation sector.”

Related iMOVE article:

• Electric Vehicles: Info, Projects & Resources

The change to our traffic lights that could make you happier

An interview with Traffic engineer, Tym Pieglowski. “The solution is simple,” Pieglowski said of an idea he is championing at the Committee for Sydney’s Sydney Summit next week, inspired by his son’s question: change traffic rules so anyone travelling along the main road – either walking, cycling or driving – has the right of way, and anyone wanting to intercept is forced to give way. He describes it as “an imaginary zebra crossing on every road and intersection”.

Will increasing residential density decrease parking availability? A method for practitioners

One more new academic paper for the week, this from Dave Amos, City and Regional Planning, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. The abstract

Cities in the United States aim to increase the supply of affordable housing in low-density areas, but residents are concerned about the availability of parking as density increases. This study measures on- and off-street parking vacancy in three neighborhoods zoned single-family “R-1” and three zoned moderate-density “R-2” to understand if increasing housing density reduces parking vacancy.

Results indicate that while there is more vacancy in R-1 neighborhoods, the R-2 neighborhoods still have significant excess capacity. Furthermore, the method for finding this result is low-cost and potentially useful to local planners interested in increasing residential density while addressing local concerns.”

Related iMOVE projects:

• Brisbane parking management: An integrated, strategic approach
• Free-flow parking for car-sharing